C. African Republic leader faces rebel threat

DAMARA, Central African Republic (AP) — More than 30 truckloads of troops from Chad line the two-lane highway just outside of Damara, supporting Central African Republic government forces who want to block a new rebel coalition from reaching the capital.

In a display of force, the turbaned fighters hold their rocket-propelled grenades and other weapons they threaten to use if the rebels seeking to oust President Francois Bozize push this far south.

Gen. Jean Felix Akaga, who heads the regional force known as FOMAC, says a push on Damara, just 75 kilometers (45 miles) north of the capital, would be “a declaration of war” on the 10 Central African states.

“For us, Damara is the red line that the rebels cannot cross,” Akaga said Wednesday. “If they attack Damara, we will attack.”

The United Nations called for talks between the government and rebels and the Security Council scheduled closed consultations on the Central African Republic on Thursday afternoon.

The multinational force brought journalists up to Damara, where they touted the strength of the Chadian troops, who along with forces from Republic of Congo and Gabon are helping to stabilize the area.

The rebels, though, appear to be holding their positions after taking a string of towns including Sibut, which is 70 miles (112 kilometers) further north from Damara.

Back in 2003, troops under Bozize seized the capital amid volleys of machine-gun and mortar fire, and he then dissolved the constitution and parliament. Now a decade later it is Bozize who himself could be ousted from power.

On Wednesday, he announced through a decree read on state radio that he was dismissing his son, Francis, as defense minister. Chief of Staff Guillaume Lapo also was being replaced.

The president already has promised to form a coalition government with rebels and to negotiate without conditions. It’s a sign of how seriously Bozize is threatened by the rebel groups who call themselves Seleka, which means alliance in the Sango language.

Bozize says there’s one point not up for negotiation: he does not intend to leave office before his term ends in 2016.

“We can’t destroy the country. I don’t think that a transition is a good solution for the rebels, for Central African Republic or for the international community,” said Cyriaque Gonda, a spokesman for the political coalition behind Bozize.

But mediators for the government and others note the rebels — an alphabet soup of acronyms in French, UFDR, CPJP, FDPC and CPSK — want Bozize gone. And that’s the only issue the disparate group seems unified on. Seleka is a shaky alliance that lumps together former enemies.

In September 2011, fighting between the CPJP and the UFDR left at least 50 people dead in the town of Bria and more than 700 homes destroyed.

“Even if they show unity in the military action, we know that they are politically very disunited, the only thing that holds them together is the opposition to the current president,” said Roland Marchal, a Paris-based expert on Central African Republic. “If they take control of the capital I think that divisions would appear quickly.”

Gonda, who has negotiated on behalf of the government with the rebels, says some of them couldn’t even accept sitting together as recently as 2008.

Meanwhile, in some parts of the capital, Bangui, a city of 700,000, life continued as normal, while in others the military buildup was evident.

Trucks full of soldiers bounced on rutted roads dotted with shacks where people can charge mobile phones. Police officers stopped vehicles at intersections. Troops from neighboring nations have arrived including about 120 soldiers each from Republic of Congo and Gabon to help stabilize the area between rebel and the government forces.

In the Bimbo neighborhood, traders went about their business, selling everything from leafy greens to meat at roadside stands.

“We don’t support what the rebels are doing,” said banana farmer Narcisse Ngo, as a young boy played nearby with a monkey corpse for sale along with other meat. “They should be at the table negotiating without weapons. We are all Central Africans.”

Bozize, who seized power while the democratically elected president was traveling outside the country, managed to win elections in 2005 but in the years since he has faced multiple low-level rebellions that have shattered security across the northern part of this large but desperately poor country.

He won the 2011 election with more than 64 percent of the vote, though the United States said the voting was “widely viewed as severely flawed.” The U.S. evacuated its diplomats from Bangui last week.

The most prominent among the rebel groups in Seleka is the UFDR, or Union of Democratic Forces for Unity.

Human Rights Watch, which has documented abuses by both government forces and rebel groups operating in the country’s north, says the UFDR rebellion “has its roots in the deep marginalization of northeastern CAR, which is virtually cut off from the rest of the country and is almost completely undeveloped.”

The rebels, though, also have included some of Bozize’s former fighters who helped bring him to power in 2003 but later accused him of failing to properly pay them, among other grievances, Human Rights Watch says.

For the people now caught in the middle, they want life to return to normal.

“Everyone is suffering here — we have nothing to eat,” said Daniel Ngakou, 55, as he watched the Chadian troops patrol his hometown of Damara. “The women are searching in the bush all day for food. We just don’t know what will happen.”

The United Nations called on the government and the rebels Wednesday to focus on dialogue that can avert violence and lead to a peaceful resolution of the conflict and respect for the 2008 Libreville Comprehensive Peace Agreement. That deal was signed by the government and three major rebel groups.

U.N. spokesman Martin Nesirky reiterated the U.N. Security Council’s call last week for all parties to refrain from any acts of violence against civilians, respect human rights and seek a peaceful solution.

“We welcome regional efforts to seek a political solution and reinforce security,” Nesirky told reporters at U.N. headquarters in New York.

While the United Nations has temporarily withdrawn its staff from Central African Republic, Nesirky said the world body remains engaged in efforts to resolve the crisis.

He said U.N. special representative Margaret Vogt “has remained in close dialogue with the key parties in the Central African Republic and the region and has offered support to political negotiations,” he said.

___

Associated Press writer Oleg Cetinic in Paris and Edith M. Lederer at the United Nations contributed to this report.

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The Most and Least Influential Social Media Celebs

While he isn’t currently available for promotional work, businesses would have the most success on social media with President Barack Obama endorsing their goods and services, new research shows.

A study by social marketing platform SocialToaster revealed that Obama is considered the most influential celebrity on social media. Justin Bieber, Lady Gaga, Ashton Kutcher and Anderson Cooper followed the president on the rankings of social influencers.

On the flip side, the research found that former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney was the least influential celebrity on social media, finishing just below Madonna, Kanye West and Sean Hannity.

While celebrities might be influential on social media in some aspects, it’s those closest to us who make the largest impact when it comes to the important issues. Nearly all of the social media users surveyed agreed that a social media post from a close friend or family member was most likely to influence them on important subjects, with politicians and athletes the least likely to influence them.

“While it was no surprise that in this election year Barack Obama would be ranked the most influential person in social media, it was surprising to us that Justin Bieber and Lady Gaga would beat Madonna and Kanye West,” said Brian Razzaque, CEO of SocialToaster. “We were also surprised to see that friends had more pull than family when it came to influencing the sharing of social media content.”

Regardless of whom it comes from, there are some posts that will quickly result in an unfollowing, the study discovered. Nearly three-quarters of those surveyed said a racist post would cause them to immediately unfollow someone on social media. Other types of posts that result in a loss of followers include sexism, pornography, repetitive, overly personal posts and those that use poor grammar.

The researcher was based on surveys of 3,000 SocialToaster Super Fans, which consist of social media experts and professionals, many of whom work with some of the nation’s leading brands. The experts range from those who work in the entertainment industry who represent numerous television shows and movies to those who work in professional sports, including the Baltimore Ravens and the Detroit Pistons.

This story was provided by BusinessNewsDaily, a sister site to LiveScience. Follow Chad Brooks on Twitter @cbrooks76 or BusinessNewsDaily @BNDarticles. We’re also on Facebook & Google+.

Copyright 2012 LiveScience, a TechMediaNetwork company. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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“Hunger Games” and “Hobbit” most-anticipated films of 2013: poll

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – This year will look a lot like 2012 at the box office, with “The Hunger Games” and Hobbits at the top of cinemagoers must-see lists, according to a survey by ticket-seller Fandango released on Thursday.

The second installment in “The Hunger Games” trilogy, “The Hunger Games: Catching Fire,” which is set for a November release, topped the list as 2013′s most-anticipated blockbuster.

The first film in the life-or-death thriller series starring Jennifer Lawrence, raked in some $ 687 million at the worldwide box office in 2012.

“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug,” director Peter Jackson‘s second installment in the “The Hobbit” series of elves and dwarves, ranked second on the survey that polled more than 2,000 moviegoers during the final week of 2012. It is scheduled to hit the big screen in December.

“People love the mega-franchises and that is what gets them most excited,” Dave Karger, Fandango chief correspondent, told Reuters. “The first ‘Hunger Games‘ whetted peoples’ appetites for more. The same can be said for ‘The Hobbit‘ and ‘Iron Man.’”

The superhero thriller “Iron Man 3″ starring Robert Downey Jr. ranked third on the list and is set for a May 3 release.

“Star Trek into Darkness” – the follow-up to 2009′s “Star Trek” science-fiction adventure – and “The Great Gatsby” starring Leonardo DiCaprio rounded out the top five. Both films are set to open in May.

‘JAZZED’ ABOUT FRANCHISES

The heavy dose of franchise films on the list indicates how familiarity can build buzz among moviegoers, Karger said.

“In the case of ‘The Hunger Games,’ many people who loved the movie have read the other books so they’re excited to see it brought to life,” he said. “The same with ‘The Hobbit‘ too.

“Some people say, ‘Where is the originality?’ but the fact of the matter is that these franchises are what people get most jazzed about.”

The survey also asked film fans to vote on the sexiest man and woman on the big screen in 2013, as well as best villain, breakout stars and best apocalyptic films.

Mila Kunis, who stars in upcoming film “Oz: The Great and Powerful,” was voted sexiest actress, while Channing Tatum was voted sexiest man for Paramount’s “G.I. Joe: Retaliation.” Both films are set for March releases.

Ben Kingsley (“Iron Man 3″) was voted most-anticipated villain, and June’s zombie thriller “World War Z” starring Brad Pitt was voted most-anticipated apocalyptic film.

British actress Alice Eve was voted biggest breakout actress for “Star Trek” while fellow Brit Henry Cavill got the nod as biggest breakout actor for playing Superman opposite Russell Crowe and Amy Adams in “Man of Steel,” which will be released in June.

Full results can be viewed at Fandango.com.

(Reporting by Eric Kelsey, editing by Jill Serjeant and Sandra Maler)

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Flu? Malaria? Disease forecasters look to the sky

NEW YORK (AP) — Only a 10 percent chance of showers today, but a 70 percent chance of flu next month.

That’s the kind of forecasting health scientists are trying to move toward, as they increasingly include weather data in their attempts to predict disease outbreaks.

In one recent study, two scientists reported they could predict — more than seven weeks in advance — when flu season was going to peak in New York City. Theirs was just the latest in a growing wave of computer models that factor in rainfall, temperature or other weather conditions to forecast disease.

Health officials are excited by this kind of work and the idea that it could be used to fine-tune vaccination campaigns or other disease prevention efforts.

At the same time, experts note that outbreaks are influenced as much, or more, by human behavior and other factors as by the weather. Some argue weather-based outbreak predictions still have a long way to go. And when government health officials warned in early December that flu season seemed to be off to an early start, they said there was no evidence it was driven by the weather.

This disease-forecasting concept is not new: Scientists have been working on mathematical models to predict outbreaks for decades and have long factored in the weather. They have known, for example, that temperature and rainfall affect the breeding of mosquitoes that carry malaria, West Nile virus and other dangerous diseases.

Recent improvements in weather-tracking have helped, including satellite technology and more sophisticated computer data processing.

As a result, “in the last five years or so, there’s been quite an improvement and acceleration” in weather-focused disease modeling, said Ira Longini, a University of Florida biostatistician who’s worked on outbreak prediction projects.

Some models have been labeled successes.

In the United States, researchers at Johns Hopkins University and the University of New Mexico tried to predict outbreaks of hantavirus in the late 1990s. They used rain and snow data and other information to study patterns of plant growth that attract rodents. People catch the disease from the droppings of infected rodents.

“We predicted what would happen later that year,” said Gregory Glass, a Johns Hopkins researcher who worked on the project.

More recently, in east Africa, satellites have been used to predict rainfall by measuring sea-surface temperatures and cloud density. That’s been used to generate “risk maps” for Rift Valley fever — a virus that spreads from animals to people and in severe cases can cause blindness or death. Researchers have said the system in some cases has given two to six weeks advance warning.

Last year, other researchers using satellite data in east Africa said they found that a small change in average temperature was a warning sign cholera cases would double within four months.

“We are getting very close to developing a viable forecasting system” against cholera that can help health officials in African countries ramp up emergency vaccinations and other efforts, said a statement by one of the authors, Rita Reyburn of the International Vaccine Institute in Seoul, South Korea.

Some diseases are hard to forecast, such as West Nile virus. Last year, the U.S. suffered one of its worst years since the virus arrived in 1999. There were more than 2,600 serious illnesses and nearly 240 deaths.

Officials said the mild winter, early spring and very hot summer helped spur mosquito breeding and the spread of the virus. But the danger wasn’t spread uniformly. In Texas, the Dallas area was particularly hard-hit, while other places, including some with similar weather patterns and the same type of mosquitoes, were not as affected.

“Why Dallas, and not areas with similar ecological conditions? We don’t really know,” said Roger Nasci of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. He is chief of the CDC branch that tracks insect-borne viruses.

Some think flu lends itself to outbreak forecasting — there’s already a predictability to the annual winter flu season. But that’s been tricky, too.

Seasonal flu reports come from doctors’ offices, but those show the disease when it’s already spreading. Some researchers have studied tweets on Twitter and searches on Google, but their work has offered a jump of only a week or two on traditional methods.

In the study of New York City flu cases published last month in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the authors said they could forecast, by up to seven weeks, the peak of flu season.

They designed a model based on weather and flu data from past years, 2003-09. In part, their design was based on earlier studies that found flu virus spreads better when the air is dry and turns colder. They made calculations based on humidity readings and on Google Flu Trends, which tracks how many people are searching each day for information on flu-related topics (often because they’re beginning to feel ill).

Using that model, they hope to try real-time predictions as early as next year, said Jeffrey Shaman of Columbia University, who led the work.

“It’s certainly exciting,” said Lyn Finelli, the CDC’s flu surveillance chief. She said the CDC supports Shaman’s work, but agency officials are eager to see follow-up studies showing the model can predict flu trends in places different from New York, like Miami.

Despite the optimism by some, Dr. Edward Ryan, a Harvard University professor of immunology and infectious diseases, is cautious about weather-based prediction models. “I’m not sure any of them are ready for prime time,” he said.

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Weak December sales show shoppers under pressure

(Reuters) – Some major U.S. retailers had a tough December, with chains like Target and Family Dollar feeling the pinch as consumers were cautious in their holiday spending.

The economy took a toll on shoppers in the most important quarter of the year for retailers. The holiday season was never expected to be stellar, but even the single-digit growth anticipated by chains and analysts came under pressure as Superstorm Sandy, the ever-present headlines about the “fiscal cliff” and the Connecticut school shootings affected consumers’ moods.

“The consumers’ confidence is off a bit, and I don’t think you can point to a single individual thing. It’s a culmination of things that hit their psyche,” said Madison Riley, managing director of retail consulting firm Kurt Salmon.

Among the chains reporting December sales at stores open at least a year on Thursday, Costco Wholesale Corp stood out with growth that topped expectations. Limited Brands Inc’s sales rose less than anticipated, marking a rare miss for the owner of the Victoria’s Secret chain.

Target Corp’s same-store sales were essentially flat, while analysts anticipated a 0.8 percent increase, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Target said fourth-quarter earnings should meet or somewhat exceed the low end of its forecast. It said the number of transactions at existing stores slipped in the quarter, while the average transaction size increased. Food was its best seller.

Overall, analysts looked for 3.3 percent same-store sales growth for December across 17 chains, down from 4.2 percent growth in December 2011, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Chains also had a somewhat rough November, with same-store sales up a disappointing 1.6 percent.

Still, Kurt Salmon’s Riley predicted that if the upcoming debt ceiling debate goes better than the Washington wrangling to avoid the cliff, there could be a bigger uptick in consumer spending in 2013.

HITS AND MISSES

Macy’s Inc’s same-store sales were up 4.1 percent, just above the 4 percent analysts expected. But the department store chain lowered its fourth-quarter sales and profit forecasts because the rate of growth in November and December was “somewhat” less than it expected.

Family Dollar Stores Inc‘s same-store sales rose about 2.5 percent in December after increasing 6.6 percent in the preceding quarter.

“The holiday selling season proved to be more challenging than we expected as customers faced increasing financial uncertainty,” said Family Dollar Chairman and Chief Executive Howard Levine.

Limited’s same-store sales rose 3 percent versus expectations of a 4.5 percent increase, hurt by flat results at its Victoria’s Secret chain. Limited said its merchandise profit margin came in below its own forecast.

Wet Seal Inc said it expects a fourth-quarter loss at or near the bottom of its prior forecast. Wet Seal, which caters to teens, said same-store sales fell 9.7 percent. Analysts predicted the chain would have the weakest sales of any of the 17 chains reporting, but only anticipated a 5 percent decline.

Costco posted a 9 percent rise in December same-store sales, topping estimates for a 6.5 percent increase, boosted by an additional sales day in the reporting period. Higher fuel prices and a weaker dollar also helped.

(Reporting by Jessica Wohl in Chicago; Additional reporting by Phil Wahba in New York and Sakthi Prasad in Bangalore; Editing by Jeffrey Benkoe)

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Israeli-Palestinian clashes erupt in West Bank

TAMOUN, West Bank (AP) — An arrest raid by undercover Israeli soldiers disguised as vegetable vendors ignited rare clashes in the northern West Bank on Tuesday, residents said, leaving at 10 Palestinians wounded.

Israeli army raids into Palestinian areas to seize activists and militants are fairly common. The raids are normally coordinated with Palestinian security forces, and suspects are usually apprehended without violence.

The clashes began early Tuesday after Israeli forces disguised as merchants in a vegetable truck arrested one man. Regular army forces then entered the town, prompting youths to hurl rocks to try to prevent more arrests.

Israeli forces fired tear gas, rubber bullets and live ammunition as youths set tires and bins on fire to block the passage of military vehicles. In several hours of clashes, dozens of masked youths hid behind makeshift barriers, hurling rocks and firebombs at soldiers.

Faris Bisharat, a resident of Tamoun, said 10 men were wounded, some by live fire. Bisharat said the wanted men belong to Islamic Jihad, a violent group sworn to Israel’s destruction. It wasn’t clear how many men Israeli forces sought to arrest. There were no immediate details on how seriously the 10 were hurt.

The Israeli military said it arrested a “terrorist affiliated with the Islamic Jihad terror group.” It said two soldiers were injured during the raid.

The fighting, which broke out in several parts of the town of some 8,000 people, were a rare, angry response. It was also unusual for Israeli forces to use live fire toward Palestinian demonstrators. Israel says it uses live fire only in extremely dangerous situations.

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Apple testing new iPhone, iOS 7: report

(Reuters) – Apple Inc has started testing a new iPhone and the next version of its iOS software, news website The Next Web reported.

Apple shares were up 2.6 percent at $ 546.06 in premarket trading. The stock closed at $ 532.17 on the Nasdaq on Monday.

Application developers have found in their app usage logs references to a new iPhone identifier, iPhone 6.1, running iOS 7 operating system, the website reported. (http://r.reuters.com/fyd94t)

Apple‘s iPhone 5 bears the identifiers “iPhone 5.1″ and “iPhone 5.2″ and is powered by iOS 6 operating system.

Developer logs show that the app requests originate from an internet address on Apple’s Cupertino campus, suggesting that Apple engineers are testing compatibility for some of the popular apps, the website said.

“Although OS and device data can be faked, the unique IP footprint leading back to Apple’s Cupertino campus leads us to believe this is not one of those attempts,” the website said.

Apple launched iPhone 5 in September and it has been reported that the new iPhone will be released in the middle of 2013.

(Reporting by Supantha Mukherjee in Bangalore)

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Jon Stewart to host Grammy’s MusiCares tribute

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Jon Stewart is hosting the MusiCares salute to Bruce Springsteen.

The Recording Academy also announced Wednesday that Elton John, Neil Young, Mumford & Sons, Sting, Mavis Staples and Kenny Chesney will be among more than a dozen performers who will help pay tribute to Springsteen during the Feb. 8 benefit concert, held in Los Angeles two days before the Grammy Awards.

Springsteen is MusiCare’s person of the year, an award given to a performer who is notable both artistically and philanthropically. The sold-out concert will benefit MusiCare’s emergency financial assistance and addiction recovery programs.

Other performers scheduled to appear include Juanes, Tim McGraw and Faith Hill, Jackson Browne and Alabama Shakes.

Stewart is the host of Comedy Central’s “The Daily Show With Jon Stewart.”

___

Online:

http://grammy.com

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Women Lose Half Their Weight: How They Did It

At 25 years old and 288 pounds, Ashley Donahoo was depressed.

“I was unhappy with my job, I was unhappy with the direction my life was going, and I had a hard time enjoying the little things that my kids wanted to do,” the 27-year-old mother of two from Pace, Fla., said. “My health was failing. My doctor told me that he didn’t think I was going to make it to 30 if I kept on [this way]. … It kept getting worse and worse.”

Donahoo was concerned, but it was her faithful husband, David, who pushed her on a path to health, starting with a walk around the block.

“His heart was breaking for me,” she said. “And he saw how unhappy I was, and he came to me and said, ‘We’re going to go for a walk.’  And I was, like, ‘No, we’re not.’”

Her husband won that battle, and on the walk, she started thinking about her own choices and future.

“The realization hit me that I made this choice.  I made this choice to get where I am right now.  So I’m going to start making a different choice,” she said.   ”I put my health and myself on back burner, and I think … it had all caught up to me.”

Jumpstart Your Weight Loss: CLICK HERE to Ask a Celebrity Trainer a Question!

Like Donahoo, Caroline Jhingory reached a similar eye-opening realization about her weight.

“I looked in the mirror one day and just realized I didn’t recognize the person that was staring back at me,” said Jhingory, 32, of Washington, D.C.

Jhingory’s struggles with her weight began early. At age 8, she weighed 120 pounds. Taunted by her peers, Jhingory was enrolled in a medical weight loss program, but it didn’t work because she would sneak junk food like candy bars.

“I found a way to be a food hustler and get whatever food I wanted,” she said. “Not only did I spend two decades of my life morbidly obese. I spent two decades of my life being taunted and teased in every environment. I never went to prom. I never had dates. I couldn’t ride a roller coaster because the safety bar wouldn’t go over my stomach.”

Jhingory remained heavy until college, when she tipped the scales at 303 pounds and started feeling self-conscious in her new environment.

“I felt like I had a moment when all these difficult experiences were a huge pause button on my life. I finally said to myself, ‘I’m tired of this. I want to have a normal life.’”

Jhingory started walking everywhere. Then, she took up a daily cardio regimen to shed the weight, and she rid her pantry of tempting snack foods she once binged on. Now 149 pounds, she has reclaimed her shape and kept off the weight.

Jhingory’s amazing transformation, along with Donahoo’s and other weight-loss success stories, were spotlighted in the “Half Their Size” feature in the latest issue of People magazine.

RELATED: Is Being Overweight Really Bad For You?

Donahoo cut out the late-night binges that brought her down and, thanks to her strong support system, lost 137 pounds. She credited her weight loss success to tracking her food and exercise on livestrong.com and running. She has run two 5Ks.

Leah Fernandez of Atlanta found herself at 251 pounds after two pregnancies. The baby weight stuck and she tended to eat emotionally.

“I wanted the food,” she said. “It made me feel good, and so I ate it.”

But it was the motivation to be there for her children that helped her turn it all around.

“Thinking about going out to the park with my kids felt like work to me, you know?  And at some point I realized that’s ridiculous. Not only am I cheating myself but I’m cheating my kids of me,” she said.

Fernandez turned to Jenny Craig in March 2011 and hasn’t looked back. Since then, she has lost half her weight by staying active with her kids and incorporating walking into her lifestyle.

“I’m getting my groove back.  Leah’s getting her groove back,” she said.

RELATED: Apps to Help With Weight-Loss Resolutions

RELATED: 329 Pound-Weight-Loss Trio Share Their Secrets

READ MORE: 138 Pound Weight Loss Changes Woman’s Life

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Markets rally on US fiscal deal

2 January 2013 Last updated at 09:51 ET

Continue reading the main story

Global stock markets have rallied after a short-term deal to stave off the US “fiscal cliff” was reached.

The Dow Jones gained 1.8% at the open on Wall Street, while European shares were up by more than 2% for the day.

Failure to agree a deal would have triggered spending cuts and tax rises worth $ 600bn (£370bn), expected to throw the US back into recession.

However, the deal has only postponed by two months negotiations over spending cuts and the government debt ceiling.

Just before the New Year, the US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner indicated that the federal government would run up against the debt ceiling – a legal cap on its total borrowing set by Congress – by the end of February.

The fiscal cliff deal does not include an increase in the debt ceiling. It also postpones by two months steep automatic spending cuts to federal government spending on things like defence and education.

The fiscal cliff measures – immediate tax rises worth $ 536bn, as well as spending cuts of $ 109bn from benefit payments and domestic and military programmes – were due to come into effect automatically at midnight on Monday.

Tax rises

The deal has averted most of these measures, including:

Continue reading the main story

“Start Quote

This week’s deal lifts the risk of an accidental recession – at least for a while”

End Quote

• making permanent tax cuts dating back to George W Bush’s presidency, for individuals earning less than $ 400,000


• postponing the $ 65bn of automatic spending cuts for two months


• keeping benefits available for the long-term unemployed, worth $ 26bn, for another year


• postponing for another year an $ 11bn cut in Medicare payments

However, the deal did also allow some tax rises to go ahead, namely:

• the expiry of a payroll tax holiday, expected to raise $ 95bn in additional annual revenue


• allowing the Bush-era income tax cuts for individuals earning over $ 400,000 to come to an end, with the top rate increasing from 35% to 40%


• higher taxes on dividend income, capital gains and inheritance for these same top earners


• phasing out certain income tax deductions for individuals earning more than $ 200,000

The increase in payroll taxes is likely to be the most significant of these measures, in terms of how much it raises in revenue for the government, the number of taxpayers affected, and its impact on the economy.

Payroll tax is paid by all employees. The tax holiday – which cut the rate from 6.2% to 4.2% – was introduced by President Barack Obama three years ago to help stimulate the lethargic economy by putting more money in the pockets of ordinary American workers, who were most likely to go out and spend it.

Continue reading the main story

“Start Quote

The battle [over spending cuts] has just been shoved two months down the road”

End Quote

Economists suggest that its expiry is likely to have the biggest impact on spending – particularly consumer spending – in the US.

Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, has said it would reduce US economy growth by 0.6%.

‘Disappointment’

The deal has postponed the hardest decisions that Republican and Democratic politicians must still reach agreement on – over spending cuts and the debt ceiling.

Both issues will need to be addressed at the end of February, with Republicans likely to demand deep cuts, particularly to entitlement programmes such as social security, in return for an increase in the legal cap on government borrowing.

President Obama’s Democrats would prefer to reduce the government’s deficit via further tax rises.

“In the most immediate sense, they took their feet of the cliff, but once again they have taken the hard work and pushed it down the street,” said Daniel Costello, a US economics commentator.

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Fiscal cliff explained

• On 1 January 2013, tax increases and huge spending cuts were due to come into force – the so-called fiscal cliff


• The deadline was put in place in 2011 to force the president and Congress to agree ways to save money over the next 10 years


• The fear was that raising taxes while massively cutting spending would have huge impact on households and businesses


• Experts believed it could have pushed the US into recession, and had a global impact on growth


• A deal has been reached delaying some of the tax rises and all of the spending cuts by at least two months

“It’s a huge disappointment. The Republicans deeply wanted spending cuts. Their long-term goal is to finally start chipping away at some of the entitlement spending [on welfare payments] that is just getting out of control.”

Entitlement payments are expected to rise sharply in the coming decades as the post-World War II baby-boom generation retires and enters old age, entailing more government-funded medical care.

“Two-thirds of all federal spending comes from entitlement spending – that means when you wake up in the morning, two-thirds of the money is already spent. By 2020, that goes up to 90%.”

When President Obama last faced off against the largely Republican-controlled Congress over the debt ceiling in 2011, negotiations went to the wire before agreement was reached to increase the ceiling from $ 14.3tn to $ 14.7tn.

Markets fell sharply at the time on fears that, legally barred from borrowing any more, the government might be forced to default on some of its payment obligations, with unknown but potentially significant legal consequences.

The political wrangling also prompted ratings agency Standard and Poor’s to deprive the US of its top AAA credit rating.

Temporary lift

Despite the deal’s shortcomings, markets took cheer from the fact that agreement had been reached on how to postpone and moderate the process of bringing the government’s overspending back under control.

Richard Hunter, Hargreaves Lansdown: “This points the market in the right direction”

The FTSE 100 index rose 145 points to 6,043 points, the first time it has been above the 6,000 level in 17 months, with mining shares leading the way.

The UK market was also boosted by a survey of production and new orders in the manufacturing sector, which showed activity at a 15-month high in December.

Shares worldwide had been hurt in November and December by fears that the US would not be able to reach any kind of agreement and would go off the cliff.

Analysts said the relief would not last.

Mike McCudden, head of derivatives at stockbroker Interactive Investor said: “There will no doubt be a few more twists and turns in the days ahead… but for now, investors have the concrete news they were hoping for.”

Joe Rundle, head of trading at ETX Capital, said: “Today’s bullish tone may continue as we head toward the weekend. but the euphoria will most certainly evaporate, as the deal voted through does not include raising the debt ceiling and longer-term budget cuts.

“It’s only a matter of time before market participants lose their buzz as US lawmakers will have to reconvene to address the remainder of unresolved issues.”

BBC News – Business

Title Post: Markets rally on US fiscal deal
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