UK assumes presidency of G8 group

31 December 2012 Last updated at 22:18 ET

The UK is assuming its year-long presidency of the G8 group of nations.

The presidency – which rotates through the G8 members – means it will host the annual leaders’ summit and choose the global priorities that are discussed.

June’s summit is to be held at Lough Erne, in County Fermanagh, while topics discussed will include tax havens.

The G8 is made up countries who have, historically, been the richest in the world – France, the US, Russia, Japan, Germany, Italy, Canada and the UK.

As prime minister of the presidency holding nation, David Cameron has said he wants to focus on combating trade protectionism, cracking down on tax havens and promoting greater government transparency.

These topics will be discussed in ministerial meetings ahead of the summit along with urgent issues like the crisis in Syria.

Although G8 summits are renowned for fine communiques, the group increasingly suffers from a credibility problem – some of the world’s largest economies like China, India and Brazil are not members, says BBC world affairs correspondent Emily Buchanan.

Our correspondent also adds that organisers will at least be hoping the June summit will be trouble-free.

The last time the UK was the host in 2005, in Gleneagles, more than 200,000 people marched against world poverty.

The proceedings were then overshadowed by the 7/7 bus and underground bombings in London.

Mr Cameron announced in November that the G8 summit would be held at the Lough Erne golf resort near Enniskillen.

It is the first time an event of this size has been held in Northern Ireland.

Speaking at the time, the prime minister said: “I want the world to see just what a fantastic place Northern Ireland is – a great place for business, a great place for investment, a place with an incredibly educated and trained workforce ready to work for international business.

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Canadian job creation seen sharply lower in December

OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canada‘s job market is expected to slow markedly in December to reflect the sluggish economy and employers’ fears about the U.S. fiscal crisis following outsized gains of over 50,000 jobs in two of the previous three months.

The median forecast in a Reuters poll is for the economy to add just 5,000 jobs in the month, with forecasts ranging from a loss of 20,000 positions to a gain of 21,000.

The forecast compares with employment growth of 59,600 in November, 1,800 in October and 52,100 in September.

The unemployment rate is seen ticking higher in the final month of the year to 7.3 percent from 7.2 percent.

Derek Holt, vice president of economics at Scotiabank, said he’s been surprised by the strength of job growth which he estimates to be the equivalent in the United States of about 1.5 million non-farm payroll jobs over the last three months.

“Here we are with the conundrum where we have zero growth in the Canadian economy, long predating the appearance of the greatest fiscal-cliff risks and yet we’re heaping on jobs like there’s no tomorrow,” Holt said.

Unlike the United States, Canada has long recovered all the jobs lost during the 2008-09 recession but the pace of hiring in 2012 was unsteady.

Benjamin Reitzes, economist at BMO Capital Markets, said if the 5,000-job forecast was accurate, it would put 2012 job growth at just 1.1 percent, “the weakest non-recession year since 1996.”

Canadian employers have faced uncertainty in one form or another during the recovery and are now fretting about the U.S. fiscal cliff, a set of tax hikes and spending cuts that will automatically take effect and could throw the United States into recession unless the White House and Congress reach an alternative agreement.

“For as long as Washington cannot agree on the new tax rules and spending focus, they’re not going to give business the confidence to go out and hire and engage in capital spending projects and that’s going to impede the pace of recovery until we get more clarity,” said Holt.

With the Canadian economy now expected to grow by far less in the fourth quarter than the Bank of Canada‘s projection of 2.5 percent, annualized, the blockbuster jobs growth of recent months looks suspect. The six-month trend shows more sustainable gains of about 21,000 a month.

The moderation means the Bank of Canada will be in no hurry to raise its benchmark interest rate, which it has held at 1.0 percent since September 2010.

Market players surveyed by Reuters in late November predicted the bank would resume hiking rates in the fourth quarter of 2013.

(Reporting by Louise Egan; Editing by Kenneth Barry)

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List: No love for ‘fiscal cliff,’ ‘spoiler alert’

DETROIT (AP) — Spoiler alert: This story contains words and phrases that some people want to ban from the English language. “Spoiler alert” is among them. So are “kick the can down the road,” ”trending” and “bucket list.”

A dirty dozen have landed on the 38th annual List of Words to be Banished from the Queen’s English for Misuse, Overuse and General Uselessness. The nonbinding, tongue-in-cheek decree released Monday by northern Michigan’s Lake Superior State University is based on nominations submitted from the United States, Canada and beyond.

“Spoiler alert,” the seemingly thoughtful way to warn readers or viewers about looming references to a key plot point in a film or TV show, nevertheless passed its use-by date for many, including Joseph Foly, of Fremont, Calif. He argued in his submission the phrase is “used as an obnoxious way to show one has trivial information and is about to use it, no matter what.”

At the risk of further offense, here’s another spoiler alert: The phrase receiving the most nominations this year is “fiscal cliff,” banished because of its overuse by media outlets when describing across-the-board federal tax increases and spending cuts that economists say could harm the economy in the new year without congressional action.

“You can’t turn on the news without hearing this,” said Christopher Loiselle, of Midland, Mich., in his submission. “I’m equally worried about the River of Debt and Mountain of Despair.”

Other terms coming in for a literary lashing are “superfood,” ”guru,” ”job creators” and “double down.”

University spokesman Tom Pink said that in nearly four decades, the Sault Ste. Marie school has “banished” around 900 words or phrases, and somehow the whole idea has survived rapidly advancing technology and diminishing attention spans.

Nominations used to come by mail, then fax and via the school’s website, he said. Now most come through the university’s Facebook page. That’s fitting, since social media has helped accelerate the life cycle of certain words and phrases, such as this year’s entry “YOLO” — “you only live once.”

“The list surprises me in one way or another every year, and the same way every year: I’m always surprised how people still like it, love it,” he said.

Rounding out the list are “job creators/creation,” ”boneless wings” and “passion/passionate.” Those who nominated the last one say they are tired of hearing about a company’s “passion” as a substitute for providing a service or product for money.

Andrew Foyle, of Bristol, England, said it’s reached the point where “passion” is the only ingredient that keeps a chef from preparing “seared tuna” that tastes “like dust swept from a station platform.”

“Apparently, it’s insufficient to do it ably, with skill, commitment or finesse,” Foyle said. “Passionate, begone!”

As usual, the etymological exercise — or exorcise — only goes so far. Past lists haven’t eradicated “viral,” “amazing,” ”LOL” or “man cave” from everyday use.

___

Follow Jeff Karoub on Twitter: http://twitter.com/jeffkaroub

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La terapia prostática con protones no provoca menos efectos adversos

NUEVA YORK (Reuters Health) – Un costoso tratamiento para el

cáncer de próstata, conocido como terapia con haz de protones,

provoca tantos efectos adversos como las radioterapias más

comunes y económicas.

“En el largo plazo, realmente no existen diferencias entre

los resultados de la terapia con protones y la radioterapia de

intensidad modulada (IMRT, por su sigla en inglés) en los

hombres con cáncer prostático”, dijo el autor principal del

estudio, el doctor James Yu, radiólogo y oncólogo de la Facultad

de Medicina de la Universidad de Yale.

Los defensores de la terapia con protones sostienen que el

haz de protones irradia directamente al tumor y, así, evita los

efectos adversos. La IMRT, que es más común, deja expuestos a la

radiación a tejidos sanos, lo que para los investigadores

aumentaría los efectos adversos y el riesgo de nuevos tumores.

Pero, en un año, los autores del nuevo estudio hallaron la

misma cantidad de efectos adversos en pacientes tratados con

ambos métodos.

El cáncer de próstata es el cáncer masculino más común; cada

año, causa 28.000 muertes en Estados Unidos. Aun así, muchos

hombres mueren por otras causas porque este cáncer avanza

lentamente. Los tratamientos incluyen la quimioterapia, la

hormonoterapia, la cirugía y la espera vigilada.

Aunque los investigadores aún debaten cuál de los dos

tratamientos (haz de protones e IMRT) son la mejor opción para

los pacientes que optan por la radioterapia, eso no impidió que

proliferaran los centros que ofrecen la terapia con protones. La

Asociación Nacional de Terapia con Protones estima que en

Estados Unidos existen 10 centros y ocho en desarrollo o

construcción.

Cada centro cuesta más de 125 millones de dólares y Medicare

reintegra el doble de eso a cambio de sus servicios.

En el estudio publicado en Journal of the National Cancer

Institute, los autores revisaron los reintegros de Medicare del

2008 y el 2009 debido a complicaciones asociadas con el

tratamiento en casi 28.000 hombres con cáncer de próstata desde

hacía un año. Sólo el 2 por ciento de esos pacientes había

recibido terapia con protones; el resto, IMRT.

A los seis meses, casi el 10 por ciento de los pacientes

tratados con IMRT y el 6 por ciento de aquellos tratados con haz

de protones tuvieron efectos adversos, como incontinencia,

sensación de quemazón al orinar o problemas de erección.

Y las diferencias desaparecieron al año del tratamiento,

cuando casi uno de cada cinco pacientes padecía efectos adversos

independientemente del tratamiento recibido.

El equipo de Yu determinó que la terapia con protones cuesta

dos veces más que la IMRT: 32.428 dólares por ronda, versus

18.575 dólares, algo que coincide con estudios previos.

“Ahora, son los defensores de la terapia con protones los

que deberían probar los beneficios”, dijo Yu.

Los autores se concentraron en los efectos adversos, no en

comparar la efectividad de los tratamientos, lo que para los

promotores del uso del haz de protones es una gran debilidad.

FUENTE: Journal of the National Cancer Institute, online 14

de diciembre del 2012.

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Commissions banned on new sales

31 December 2012 Last updated at 07:37 ET

Financial advisers and sales staff can no longer be paid commissions by the firms whose policies they are selling.

New rules, aimed at eradicating the long-standing practice, are being imposed by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) from now.

The aim is to stop policies – such as private pensions and investments – being mis-sold by sales staff, motivated by commission payments.

Instead, customers must be quoted up-front fees, and be told about charges.

Sales staff or financial advisers will also have to state if they are really independent, or restricted to just selling the policies of particular financial groups.

The reforms form part of a series of changes in the financial services industry called the Retail Distribution Review, and which were first proposed by the FSA back in early 2010.

Linda Woodall at the FSA said: “The changes will improve customer confidence – we want people to feel that they are getting a service from their financial adviser that is relevant to their circumstances and in their best interests.

Continue reading the main story

“Start Quote

The danger here is that quality financial advice becomes something only for the wealthy”

End Quote Keith Tadhunter Independent Financial Adviser

“These changes are about making the cost of advice clearer, where else would you buy something without knowing in advance how much it costs?

“Customers will now know how much advice is costing them, the service that they are receiving and be reassured that their adviser is qualified.”

Mis-selling scandals

The changes should ensure that independent financial advisers no longer receive payment for their advice by taking a regular cut of their clients funds via commission payments, something the clients may not be aware of at all.

The new policy will apply to the sale of investments such as pensions, annuities and unit trusts, but not to some mortgages and insurance policies.

Alan Higham, an expert on annuities – a pension income for life – believes that there is also a loophole with sales of annuities.

He said that “limited pension advice” – which provides guidance, quotes and explains terms and accounts for about a third of annuity sales – is not covered by the new rules.

This is because the client has made the decision without recommended pension advice from an adviser. If anything is wrong with the choice, then it is the client’s responsibility, rather than the adviser’s.

Commission-driven sales are thought to have been at the heart of the huge mis-selling scandals of the past few decades, affecting the sale of endowment policies, personal pensions and most recently payment protection insurance (PPI).

Even apart from those scandals, the FSA estimated in 2010 that mis-selling in general was costing UK financial consumers about half a billion pounds a year.

Continue reading the main story

Suggested questions to IFAs

• How much will your advice cost me and how is this calculated?


• Can you explain the different ways I can pay for advice?


• Can you explain what products you can advise me on and any areas you cannot help me with?


• How often will you review my investments?


• Can you show me proof that you are qualified to give advice?

Source: Financial Services Authority

A recent survey for the FSA found that 17% of adults currently take advice from a professional financial adviser and another 32% would consider doing so.

But a third of the respondents thought, wrongly, that the advice was free and that they did not have to pay a charge.

‘Danger’

Financial advisers have said that some operators in their industry have given it a bad name. However, some argue that the change in the rules could create issues for those who may not actively seek financial products, such as a pension.

“The danger here is that quality financial advice becomes something only for the wealthy, when in reality, most people need it to some degree – as poor rates of saving across the population only go to show,” said Keith Tadhunter, an independent financial adviser at Future Financial in Bath.

But Martin Wheatley, the chief executive designate of the Financial Conduct Authority, said that – although there was a savings gap in the UK – people had not trusted financial services.

“This is part of getting trust back into finance,” he said.

He expected the industry to change, with many more options explained through websites for people looking to save or invest in the long-term.

The new policies will also stop, from the end of 2013, the practice of businesses such as fund supermarkets or online discount stockbrokers accepting payments from some of the investment funds whose policies they are selling.

This is also thought to lead to biased sales, which may not be in the best interests of private investors.

Part of these payments has sometimes found its way back to the personal investor in the form of a cash rebate, but they are also used to cross-subsidise the provision of other services, such as stock and shares Isas.

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Suspected US drone kills 3 al-Qaida men in Yemen

SANAA, Yemen (AP) — Three al-Qaida militants were killed in a suspected U.S. drone strike in southern Yemen, Yemeni security officials said, the fourth such attack this week and a sign attacks from unmanned aircraft are on the upswing in the country.

The officials said the three men were hit as they were riding in a Land Cruiser in el-Manaseh village on the outskirts of Radda in Bayda province. Dozens of local al-Qaida-linked fighters protested the drone strikes after traditional Islamic Friday prayers.

Earlier this week another suspected U.S. drone strike killed two militants in Radda itself, Yemeni security officials say, and seven were killed in two other strikes in the southeastern province of Hadramawt. Four suspected drone strikes a week is uncommon in Yemen.

According to statistics gathered by the Long War Journal before Saturday’s attacks, the United States “is known to have carried out 41 airstrikes” this year against al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), as the group’s branch in Yemen is known. That makes for an average of around three to four strikes per month.

The Journal, a product of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies that was founded by former U.S. officials, says that since December 2009, the CIA and the US military’s Joint Special Operations Command are known to have conducted at least 54 air and missile strikes inside Yemen, excluding Saturday’s suspected attack.

AQAP overran entire towns and villages — including Radda — last year by taking advantage of a security lapse during nationwide protests that eventually ousted the country’s longtime ruler. Backed by the U.S. military, Yemen’s army was able to regain control of the southern region but al-Qaida militants continue to launch deadly attacks on security forces that have killed hundreds.

Also on Saturday, two gunmen on a motorbike shot and killed an intelligence officer in the southeast, security officials said. They said that the officer, Mutea Baqutian, was on his way to work in Mukalla, capital of Hadramawt province, when the men stopped his car, gunned him down, and fled.

The government has blamed al-Qaida militants for similar assassinations of several senior military and intelligence officials this year. The bullet-riddled body of Major al-Numeiry Abdo al-Oudi, deputy director of the security department of al-Qitten in Hadramawt, was found in the town’s suburbs last week. He had been kidnapped earlier in the month.

All officials spoke on condition of anonymity according to regulations.

Meanwhile, Maj. Gen. Ahmed Seif, who is commander of Yemen’s central military region, said the Defense Ministry has deployed an infantry brigade in the northeastern province of Marib to stop armed tribesmen who maintain cordial ties with al-Qaida from attacking oil pipelines and power generating stations, as well as to counter al-Qaida militants.

State TV meanwhile aired a meeting between President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi and eight Yemeni sailors who were rescued last week by forces of Somalia’s semiautonomous Puntland region after being held for nearly three years by Somali pirates.

The Puntland government says that its forces captured the hijacked Panama-flagged MV Iceberg 1 on Sunday after a siege that lasted two weeks. They freed the eight Yemeni sailors together with five Indians, two Pakistanis, four Ghanaians, two Sudanese and a Filipino. The ship was hijacked March 29, 2010.

Hadi congratulated the eight sailors for their safety and ordered the government to compensate them for their suffering.

Eqbal Yassin, a relative of one of the freed sailors, told The Associated Press that the hijackers had allowed some sailors to phone their relatives and convey the pirates’ demand for $ 5 million ransom. He said he was told by his relative that the hijackers killed a Yemeni sailor who tried to escape. He gave no further details.

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NASA Sets Record with Ion Thrusters Test

NASA has completed a 43,000 hour stress test — a record for ion thrusters — on a new rocket propulsion system that could extend future space travel to farther reaches of the solar system.

Developed by NASA’s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster Project, the 7-kilowatt ion thruster can burn 10-12 times longer than the conventional chemical thrusters used today. Though not practical for manned-spaceflight, the system could power exploratory rockets that reach outer planets and their moons.

[More from Mashable: NASA Unveils E-books on Hubble, Webb Space Telescopes]

To find out more, watch the video above and let us know your thoughts in the comments.

Photo courtesy of NASA

[More from Mashable: First ‘Alien Earth’ Will Be Found in 2013]

BONUS: 15 Twitter Accounts Every Space Lover Should Follow

Sunita Williams

Captain Williams is a NASA astronaut who recently completed the first triathlon in space.

Click here to view this gallery.

This story originally published on Mashable here.

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Hot spots draw believers, but not doomsday

As the sun rose from time zone to time zone across the world on Friday, there was still no sign of the world’s end — but that didn’t stop those convinced that a 5,125-year Mayan calendar predicts the apocalypse from gathering at some of the world’s purported survival hot spots.

Many of the esoterically inclined expected a new age of consciousness — others wanted a party. But, in some places said to offer salvation from the end, fewer people showed up than officials had predicted — much to the disappointment of vendors hoping to sell souvenirs.

Here are some key places being marked by the fascination over doomsday rumors:

MEXICO

In an area of Mexico that was once the ancient Mayan heartland, spiritualists gathered in the darkness before dawn on Friday to prepare white clothes, drums, conch shells and incense. They believed the sunrise would herald the birth of a new and better age as a vast cycle in the Mayan calendar comes to an end.

Many people who came to Yucatan for the occasion were already calling it “a new sun” and “a new era.”

FRANCE

According to one rumor, a rocky mountain in the French Pyrenees will be the sole place on Earth to escape destruction. A giant UFO and aliens are said to be waiting under the mountain, ready to burst through and spirit those nearby to safety. But there is bad news for those seeking salvation: French gendarmes, some on horseback, blocked outsiders from reaching the Bugarach peak and its village of some 200 people.

Eric Freysselinard, head of local government, said the security forces had “partially stopped the new age enthusiasts as well as curious people from coming to the area.”

Meanwhile, some Bugarach residents dressed up like aliens, with tinfoil costumes and funnels and fake antenna on their heads, strolling around their village Friday to make light of the rumored UFO prophecy.

RUSSIA

Doomsday rumors have prompted some people across Russia to stock up on candles, water, canned foods and other non-perishable foods. The apocalypse has proven a good business, with some shops selling survival aid packages that include soap and vodka.

In Moscow, salvation has also been promised in the underground bunker for the former Soviet dictator Josef Stalin — with a 50 percent refund if nothing happens. An underground stay was originally priced at 50,000 rubles ($ 1,625) but dropped to 15,000 ($ 490) a week ahead of the feared end.

The bunker, located 65 meters (210 feet) below ground, was designed to withstand a nuclear attack. Now home to a small museum, it has an independent electricity supply, water and food — but no more room, because the museum has already sold out all 1,000 tickets.

BRITAIN

Hundreds of people have converged on Stonehenge for an “End of the World” party that coincides with the Winter Solstice.

Arthur Uther Pendragon, Britain’s best-known druid, said he was anticipating a much larger crowd than usual at Stonehenge this year. But he doesn’t agree that the world is ending, noting that he and fellow druids believe that things happen in cycles.

“We’re looking at it more as a new beginning than an end,” he said. “We’re looking at new hope.”

Meanwhile, end-of-days parties will be held across London on Friday. One event billed as a “last supper club” is offering a three-course meal served inside an “ark.”

SERBIA

Some Serbs are saying to forget that sacred mountain in the French Pyrenees. The place to be Friday is Mount Rtanj, a pyramid-shaped peak in Serbia already drawing cultists.

According to legend, the mountain once swallowed an evil sorcerer who will be released on doomsday in a ball of fire that will hit the mountain top. The inside of the mountain will then open up, becoming a safe place to hide as the sorcerer goes on to destroy the rest of the world. In the meantime, some old coal mine shafts have been opened up as safe rooms.

On Friday a New Age group called “The Spirit of Rtanj” was holding a conference there. Participants, however, said they expect not the end of time but the start of a new time cycle. Locals turned out to sell brandy and herbs.

“There will be no tragedy, no doomsday,” said resident Dalibor Jovic. “It was supposed to happen at 12:12 and I think that time has passed. So, we can now go on with our lives and be happy to be alive.”

TURKEY

A small Turkish village known for its wines, Sirince, has also been touted as the only place after Bugarach that would escape the world’s end. But on Friday journalists and security officials outnumbered cultists. This outcome disappointed local business people who had prepared a range of doomsday products to sell, including a specially labeled Doomsday wine and Turkish delight candy whose “best before” date was Dec. 21, 2012. One restaurant prepared a special “last meal” menu that included a “heaven kebab” and “forbidden fruit dessert.”

ITALY

Another spot said to be spared: Cisternino, a beautiful small town in southern Italy in an area of trulli, traditional dry stone huts with conical roofs. The notion that Cisternino could be a safe haven at world’s end derives from an Indian guru, Babaji, who said “Cisternino will become an island” at world’s end. His followers built a community in Cisternino centered on an ashram built in 1979. Hotel bookings are up this weekend.

Mayor Donato Baccaro told the AP that the beauty of the place has inspired many foreigners to live there. “This confirms that this place has a special energy,” he said.

CHINA

A fringe Christian group has been spreading rumors about the world’s impending end, prompting Chinese authorities to detain more than 500 people this week and seize leaflets, video discs, books and other material.

Those detained are reported to be members of the group Almighty God, also called Eastern Lightning, which preaches that Jesus has reappeared as a woman in central China. Authorities in the province of Qinghai say they are waging a “severe crackdown” on the group, accusing it of attacking the Communist Party and the government.

U.S.

Dozens of Michigan schools canceled classes for thousands of students to cool off rumored threats of violence and problems related to doomsday. The fears were exacerbated by the recent shooting at a Connecticut elementary school, which “changed all of us,” the school system in Genesee County said. “Canceling school is the right thing to do.”

___

Associated Press writers Florent Bajrami in Bugarach, France; Mansur Mirovalev in Moscow; Peppino Ciraci in Cisternino, Italy; Suzan Fraser in Ankara, Turkey; Paisley Dodds in London; and Dejan Mladenovic in Mount Rtanj, Serbia, contributed to this report.

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Republican Senator: chances for “fiscal cliff” deal “exceedingly good”

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said on Sunday that chances for a small “fiscal Cliff” deal in the next 48 hours were “exceedingly good” and that President Barack Obama had won.

“I think people don’t want to go over the cliff if we can avoid it,” Graham said on Fox News Sunday.

“This deal won’t affect the debt situation, it will be a political victory for the president and I hope we’ll have the courage of our convictions when it comes time to raise the debt ceiling to fight for what we believe as Republicans, but hats off to the president, he won,” Graham said.

(Reporting By Tabassum Zakaria; Editing by David Brunnstrom)

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We’re Paying Off Our Debts, At Least At Home

Had it with the so-called fiscal cliff? Wondering what comes next now that Republicans pulled the plug on House Speaker John Boehner’s Plan B? Take a break from the frenzy in Washington and ignore for the moment the federal government’s red ink. Focus instead on another balance sheet that isn’t getting enough attention: The household balance sheet. Over the past five turbulent years, despite high unemployment rates and falling median income, American households have reduced their debts and shored up their balance sheets. “The aggregate numbers show that households are back to being in pretty good shape,” says James W. Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management. Adds Susan Lund, partner at the McKinsey Global Institute: “Households continue to make very good progress at deleveraging.”

Case in point: the drop in the financial obligations ratio. It measures the ratio of household debt payments to disposable personal income. The obligation side of the ledger includes mortgage and consumer debt payments, automobile leases, rental payments on tenant-occupied property, homeowners insurance, and property taxes. In other words, the gauge captures much of the typical household’s monthly outlay for debts. The ratio hit a record high of 18.88 in the fourth quarter of 2007, according to the Federal Reserve. In the third quarter of this year it had dropped to 15.74, about the level of the early 1980s. (The series starts in 1980.) The reduced strain on household financial resources reflects the impact of low interest rates and less debt.

To be sure, about two-thirds of the gain in household balance sheets has come through mortgage foreclosures and credit-card defaults. Nevertheless, household debt as a share of gross domestic product is currently at 83 percent, far below its peak of 97 percent of GDP in 2008. At the current pace of deleveraging, households could return to their long-term borrowing trend (1950 to 2000) by the second half of 2013, calculates McKinsey’s Lund.

Households should feel wealthier next year. Their net worth plunged a record-setting 25 percent during the Great Recession. The latest readings have household net worth a mere 2 percentage points shy of reversing the loss. That figure should improve with housing market sales and prices showing definite signs of life, especially with the drag from foreclosures lessening. Yes, the current foreclosure pipeline remains full, but the future looks less dire. The rate of mortgages delinquent by 90 days or more—mortgages clearly heading toward foreclosure—fell to 3.5 percent in September 2012, according to the latest data from Foreclosure-Response.org, a joint venture between Local Initiatives Support Corp., the Urban Institute, and the Center for Housing Policy. The number is sharply lower than the December 2009 high of 5.5 percent,

The deleveraging story goes far beyond the household. Corporate America is flush with cash, and the sector has slightly reduced its debt levels. The beleaguered financial services industry has taken far more draconian actions to create a healthier margin of safety.

Such aggressive balance-sheet cleansing by the household and business sectors isn’t all good. By saving more, they are spending less, reducing demand for goods and services. That could have doomed the economy to a severe downturn if not for the big offsetting budget deficits run by the federal government.

Now even the federal government is poised to make progress. Say what? You wouldn’t know it for all the talk of fiscal crisis in Washington, yet the federal deficit as a share of GDP is shrinking as the economy recovers. Specifically, the government deficit-to-GDP ratio reached 10.4 percent of nominal GD during the Great Recession. Despite the economy expanding at a tepid 2 percent average rate, the deficit-to-GDP ratio has shrunk to 6.9 percent. Even if the economy continues to expand at a slow 2 percent pace, says Paulson, it’s likely the government debt-to-GDP ratio will peak over the next 12 to 24 months. The odds favor the lower band of that range estimate if the pace of growth picks up. “We may be at the stage where if we follow historic trends, you see government debt on a path to decline,” says Lund. Paulsen is even more optimistic: “Over the next three years the fiscal issue will fade.”

Got that, Washington? The underlying dynamics of the economy are screaming on-the-mend, including a job market that’s slowly improving, a housing market with a pulse, and healthier private sector balance sheets. Economic optimism would be the watchword of the New Year if it weren’t for the damaging drama of the fiscal cliff. Main Street has done its part.

Everyone is deeply frustrated, but considering the political blunders of recent weeks, maybe the best thing Washington can do is calm down. Stop playing political Armageddon. Realize that grand bargains can do more economic harm than fiscal good. If you must, embrace some form of face-saving, kick-the-can-down the-road compromise. Thanks to the underappreciated health in household balance sheets, the political equivalent of doing nothing will let the economy grow and deleveraging to continue. Indeed, the surprise of 2013 could be how rapid the short-term improvement in the fiscal balance sheet turns out to be.

Businessweek.com — Top News

Title Post: We’re Paying Off Our Debts, At Least At Home
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