War uproots 2.5 million Syrians, aid groups say
















GENEVA (Reuters) – At least 2.5 million Syrians are believed to have fled their homes because of civil war, aid groups said on Tuesday, more than double previous estimates.


The figure comes from the Syrian Arab Red Crescent, whose volunteers are on the frontlines of the 20-month conflict, delivering aid supplies and evacuating wounded.













“The figure they are using is 2.5 million. If anything, they believe it could be more, that this is a very conservative estimate,” Melissa Fleming, chief spokeswoman of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), told a news briefing.


“So people are moving, people are really on the run, hiding. They are difficult to count and to access,” she said.


Aid agencies had previously thought there were around 1.2 million internally displaced Syrians.


Only 5 percent of the 2.5 million are believed to be living in public facilities, including warehouses and schools, said Fleming. The rest are staying with host families, making it more difficult to count them.


In recent days, air strikes on the town of Ras al-Ain near the Turkish border have caused some of the biggest refugee movements of the conflict.


The United Nations said on Friday that up to 4 million people inside Syria will need humanitarian aid by early next year when the country is in the grip of winter, up from 2.5 million now whose needs are not fully met.


For now, the U.N. World Food Programme (WFP) says its food rations are reaching some 1.5 million. The UNHCR aims to provide assistance to 500,000 in Syria by the end of the year, mainly blankets, clothing, cooking kits and jerry cans, Fleming said.


“Unfortunately the recent deliveries have been very difficult, marred by violence and insecurity also spreading to parts of the country that used to be relatively calm,” she said.


A Syrian Arab Red Crescent warehouse in Aleppo was apparently hit by a shell, burning 13,000 blankets, she said. Unknown armed men hijacked a truck carrying 600 blankets on its way to Adra, outside Damascus.


The UNHCR has temporarily withdrawn about half of its 12 staff from north-eastern Hassaka province due to fierce fighting and insecurity, Fleming said.


“We see corresponding movement of populations there, Syrian Kurds for the most part, across the border into Iraq,” she said.


More than 407,000 Syrian refugees have registered or await registration in the surrounding region – Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan and Iraq – and more are fleeing every day, according to UNHCR.


(Editing by Tom Pfeiffer)


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UK inflation rate rises to 2.7%



















Phil Gooding, Office for National Statistics: “There are two main drivers behind the event, that comes from education and food”



The UK’s inflation rate rose sharply last month following an increase in tuition fees and food prices.


The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rose to 2.7% in October, up from 2.2% the month before.


The ONS said education costs rose by 19.1% last month after the government lifted the cap on university fees.


Food prices, especially vegetables, also rose after record wet weather earlier this year affected crop yields.


Confectionery prices also increased. The ONS said this was because a number of confectionery products had been reduced in size.


It said it treated this as a price increase in the inflation measures, as consumers were getting less for their money.


The Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation – which includes housing costs – rose to 3.2% from 2.6%.


The Treasury said the figures were “disappointing”.


Labour’s Shadow Treasury minister, Catherine McKinnell, said the increase was “worrying”.


Continue reading the main story

When the Bank of England decided last week not to create more money to support the recovery, some of us wondered why they didn’t offer an explanation”



End Quote



The ONS also announced it would be introducing a new way of measuring inflation next March, the CPIH, which will include housing costs, something that is not reflected significantly in the currently favoured measure.


Energy prices


September’s CPI inflation rate was the lowest for almost three years, and was significant as it is the month on which rises in many benefits is based.


However, inflation had been expected to pick up from that point, partly because of a recently announced round of energy price rises that are expected to affect inflation figures in the coming months.


The ONS said SSE’s price rise of about 9%, which came into effect last month, was not included in the October inflation figures.


Ross Walker, UK economist at RBS, said the latest figures were slightly worse than predicted.


“They are a little bit disappointing, higher than expected, above the range,” he said. “Ironically, we had the tuition fee increases that are roughly what we expected and the surprise for us was the extent of the food price increase.”


The cap on charges for tuition fees was raised by the government from £3,375 to £9,000 a year.


The Bank of England is charged with keeping inflation close to 2%, something it has struggled to do in recent years, as the standard way of suppressing prices is to raise interest rates, which it does not want to risk during this period of weak economic activity.


Alan Clarke, economist at Scotia Bank, said that target remained elusive: “Where do we go from here? Onwards and upwards. Utility bill increases are on their way. We’ve also got the effect of the US drought and increased food prices to factor in.


“I don’t think we’re going to get anything like the 2% inflation target.”


The Bank of England’s quarterly inflation report will be published on Wednesday.


The rise in inflation may make it less likely that the Bank will provide further stimulus to the economy in the form of quantitative easing.


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Clarke’s 218 puts Australia on front foot
















BRISBANE (Reuters) – Australia captain Michael Clarke scored a brilliant unbeaten double century to give the hosts a remarkable 37-run first innings lead on the fourth day of the first test against South Africa on Monday.


Supported first by a maiden century from opener Ed Cowan in a record stand of 259, and then by Mike Hussey‘s 86 not out, Clarke’s 218 helped lift Australia from 40 for three when he took to the crease on Sunday to 487 for four when stumps were drawn.













It was Clarke’s sixth test century, and his third double hundred, in the 15 tests since he was named captain last year in the wake of the Ashes humiliation and Australia’s quarter-final exit at the World Cup.


Although by no means a chanceless knock, the 31-year-old played with patience when South Africa’s vaunted pacemen got anything out of the Gabba track before punishing anything loose with some fine shot-making.


When he carried his bat back to the pavilion at the end of the day to the raucous cheers of a sparse crowd at the famous Brisbane ground, Clarke had faced 350 balls over 504 minutes and scored 21 fours.


“I’m very happy with that,” Clarke, who accumulated his 1,000 test run of the year during the innings, said in an interview on the boundary.


“I didn’t feel great at the start and I think Ed Cowan batted beautifully.


“We’re in a great position with a 30-odd lead. I’d like another 70 odd runs in the morning and then I want to have a crack with the ball. We’ll see what happens.”


Cowan departed for 136 in heartbreaking fashion just before tea, run out at the non-striker’s end when Dale Steyn got a finger to a Clarke drive that hit the stumps and the opener was caught out of his crease backing up.


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His partnership with Clarke was an Australian record for the fourth wicket at the Gabba, beating the 245 Clarke and Mike Hussey made against Sri Lanka in 2007.


Cowan’s wicket was the only wicket to fall on the day and Hussey started pouring on the runs as if determined to get the record back for his own partnership with his captain.


The 37-year-old bucked his poor recent form against South Africa by reaching his half century off just 68 balls with a drive through long-off and was closing on a century of his own when play ended.


It was Hussey’s cut four off Morne Morkel with which Australia overhauled South Africa’s first innings tally of 450 and put themselves in with an unlikely chance of even winning a test which lost an entire day to rain on Saturday.


Clarke’s negotiation of the “nervous nineties” for his century had been fraught and he was nearly run out going for a second run that would have brought him to the hundred mark.


There were no such jitters on his approach to the two hundred mark, which he passed by slapping the ball through mid-on for two runs before giving the badge on his helmet another kiss.


Cowan’s century was a retort to those critics who have consistently questioned his place in the team since he made his debut in last year’s Melbourne test against India.


The 30-year-old lefthander reached the mark two overs after lunch by pulling a short Vernon Philander delivery for four to the square leg boundary, beginning his joyous celebrations before the ball hit the rope.


South Africa’s number one test ranking is on the line in the series, which continues with matches in Adelaide and Perth after Brisbane.


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Microsoft’s Surface tablet has “modest” start: Ballmer
















PARIS (Reuters) – Microsoft Corp‘s new Surface tablet – its challenger to Apple‘s iPad – had a “modest” start to sales because of limited availability, Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer told French daily Le Parisien.


The world’s largest software company put the Surface tablet center stage at its Windows 8 launch event last month in its fightback against Apple and Google in the exploding mobile computing market.













“We’ve had a modest start because Surface is only available on our online retail sites and a few Microsoft stores in the United States,” Ballmer was quoted as saying.


Meanwhile, 4 million upgrades to Windows 8 were sold in the three days following the system’s launch, Ballmer added. (Reporting by Lionel Laurent; Editing by David Cowell)


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Hathaway says ‘Les Mis’ made her feel deprived
















NEW YORK (AP) — Anne Hathaway credits her new husband Adam Schulman for helping her get through the grueling filming of the screen adaptation of “Les Miserables.”


In “Les Mis,” the 30-year-old actress plays Fantine, a struggling, sickly mother forced into prostitution in 1800s Paris.













Hathaway lost 25 pounds and cut her hair for the role. She tells the December issue of Vogue, the part left her in a “state of deprivation, physical and emotional.” She felt easily overwhelmed and says Shulman was understanding and supportive.


The couple wed in September in Big Sur, Calif. Hathaway wore a custom gown by Valentino whom she collaborated with on the design. Working with the designer is a memory she says she will “treasure forever.”


The December issue of Vogue hits stores Nov. 20.


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British medical journal slams Roche on Tamiflu
















LONDON (AP) — A leading British medical journal is asking the drug maker Roche to release all its data on Tamiflu, claiming there is no evidence the drug can actually stop the flu.


The drug has been stockpiled by dozens of governments worldwide in case of a global flu outbreak and was widely used during the 2009 swine flu pandemic.













On Monday, one of the researchers linked to the BMJ called for European governments to sue Roche.


“I suggest we boycott Roche’s products until they publish missing Tamiflu data,” wrote Peter Gotzsche, leader of the Nordic Cochrane Centre in Copenhagen. He said governments should take legal action against Roche to get the money back that was “needlessly” spent on stockpiling Tamiflu.


Last year, Tamiflu was included in a list of “essential medicines” by the World Health Organization, which often prompts governments or donor agencies to buy the drug.


WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl said the agency recommended the drug be used to treat unusual influenza viruses like bird flu. “We do have substantive evidence it can stop or hinder progression to severe disease like pneumonia,” he said.


In 2009, the BMJ and researchers at the Nordic Cochrane Centre asked Roche to make all its Tamiflu data available. At the time, Cochrane Centre scientists were commissioned by Britain to evaluate flu drugs. They found no proof that Tamiflu reduced the number of complications in people with influenza.


“Despite a public promise to release (internal company reports) for each (Tamiflu) trial…Roche has stonewalled,” BMJ editor Fiona Godlee wrote in an editorial last month.


In a statement, Roche said it had complied with all legal requirements on publishing data and provided Gotzsche and his colleagues with 3,200 pages of information to answer their questions.


“Roche has made full clinical study data…available to national health authorities according to their various requirements, so they can conduct their own analyses,” the company said.


Roche says it doesn’t usually release patient-level data available due to legal or confidentiality constraints. It said it did not provide the requested data to the scientists because they refused to sign a confidentiality agreement.


Roche is also being investigated by the European Medicines Agency for not properly reporting side effects, including possible deaths, for 19 drugs including Tamiflu that were used in about 80,000 patients in the U.S.


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www.bmj.com.tamiflu/


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In This Junkyard, It Seems, There Are No Dogs

















It’s kind of Orwellian that anyone would rapaciously buy an ETF with the ticker JNK—branding shorthand for “junk,” Wall Street’s sobriquet for high-yield, the riskiest layer of corporate bonds.


Nevertheless, JNK, the SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF, and competitor offerings are a hot destination in these yield-famished days. The appeal is irrefutable: You’ll get precious little income from Treasuries and muni bonds. Creditworthy corporations are borrowing at record lows. Why not then pile into riskier, higher-yielding debt, especially if you can do so via one tidy, exchange-traded ticker? (No need to ring Michael Milken.) What’s more, Moody’s sees the global default rate for “speculative-grade” debt ending the year at 2.8 percent, compared with an average of 4.8 percent since 1983. Yields have fallen 1.65 percentage points this year, to 7.05 percent on Nov. 1, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch data.













What’s not to love?


An overcrowded trade marked by 2007-like issuer complacency—that’s what. More companies are demanding and getting easy terms on their junk issues. The most popular junk ETFs are going deeper into credit risk to scrape for yield. The sluicing of retail money into these ETFs is perpetuating what has historically proved to be a vicious trend. “Signs of over-exuberance are creeping into the corporate credit market,” wrote Michael Lewitt, a hedge fund manager who publishes the Credit Strategist. “In the past, rising issuance of these types of low-quality bonds has been a warning that a market rally is coming to an end … Today’s new issues will be the troubled credits of tomorrow.”


On Nov. 7, Standard & Poor’s warned of the unprecedented dangers of a brave, new junk bond world. Wrote credit analysts Diane Vazza and Evan Gunter:


“The ease with which investors can enter and exit ETF investments creates new and risky dynamics in the speculative-grade market with the potential flow of ‘hot money.’ Speculative-grade companies have a higher default risk than investment-grade companies. Therefore, when the credit cycle turns against investors, losses from defaults can quickly outstrip the additional interest payments that high-yield investors receive. Since we are entering the stage of declining credit quality in the current credit cycle, the credit quality of an issuer or a portfolio has become paramount.”


Vazza and Gunter looked under the hoods of JNK and its rival, HYG, the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Fund. They found that both ETFs owned a higher proportion of the riskiest junk debt versus the overall high-yield market. While they estimated that the broad universe of high yield includes 7.9 percent of bonds rated CCC+ and lower, their share in HYG’s portfolio is at 11.0 percent and in JNK just under 10 percent. While higher risk juices returns in a favorable environment like the present one, the analysts explained, they take outsized losses once the credit cycle turns.


Sales of junk debt in the U.S. have come in at $ 294 billion so far this year, the fastest pace on record. It’s in that booming backdrop that private equity-owned companies have paid out $ 34.1 billion in dividends this year, according to Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ Leveraged Commentary & Data. That’s north of 2010’s total of $ 31.5 billion and the $ 23.8 billion paid out in 2007, when the leveraged buyout market peaked. By comparison: Some $ 1.2 billion in dividends were issued in 2008 and $ 440 million in 2009.


This boom has prompted an echo-boom in payment-in-kind transactions, or PIK toggles, which let companies pay interest in debt rather than cash, essentially deferring payments to their investors. That tactic was a hallmark of the private equity bubble of five years ago. According to Moody’s, as of mid-October two of the third quarter’s 14 dividend financings enjoyed PIK toggle structures, including Emergency Medical Services’ $ 450 million of notes to pay a dividend to Clayton, Dubilier & Rice and IDQ Holdings’ $ 45 million deal supporting a payout to Castle Harlan. Last month, Petco also got in on the PIK toggle boom.


Caveat junktor. Moody’s calculates that the default rate for companies that sold PIK-toggle bonds was 13 percent from 2006 to 2010, twice the rate for similarly rated issuers that didn’t use the tactic.


“Low yields are driving more and more investors into really strange territory,” says Lee Pacchia, a Bloomberg Law analyst who follows corporate bankruptcies. “They need to take on risk. While the market forces driving this trend could go on for a while, lowering standards could end badly. It’s called ‘junk’ for a reason.”


The institutional smart money is increasingly taking the other side of that trade. According to Bloomberg data, the number of bearish options on HYG are at an all-time high: The number of outstanding puts on HYG has almost doubled since Oct. 19, to a record of 118,444 at the end of last month. Hedge funds seeking that bet on both gains and losses in credit attracted $ 12.6 billion of deposits in the three months ended Sept. 30, the most since the last quarter of 2007, according to HFR.


It all makes you wonder how quickly people may have forgotten the lessons of the credit bubble, or what one hedgie has called the era of promiscuous lending. Will today’s junk boom end so differently?


“The history of money is a sad state of affairs,” wrote Prudent Bear’s Doug Noland in his recent post, titled “The Myth of Deleveraging.” “Failing to learn from a litany of previous monetary fiascoes, ‘money’ is these days being abusively over-issued.”



Farzad is a Bloomberg Businessweek contributor.


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Israel kills Gaza rocket crewman in second day of clashes
















GAZA (Reuters) – An Israeli air strike killed a Palestinian militant in the Hamas-governed Gaza Strip on Sunday as a surge in cross-border violence entered its second day, local officials said.


Islamic Jihad, a smaller faction than Hamas which often operates independently, identified the dead man as one of its own, saying he was a member of a rocket crew hit by an Israeli missile in Jabalya, northern Gaza.













The Israeli military confirmed carrying out an air strike in the area. The death brought to six the number of Palestinians killed by Israel since four of its troops were hurt in a missile attack on their jeep along the Gaza boundary fence.


Islamic Jihad said it had fired 70 short-range rockets and mortar bombs across the border since Saturday, salvoes which drove Israeli residents to blast shelters. At least one Israeli, in the town of Sderot, was wounded, ambulance workers said.


Israel described the jeep ambush as part of a Palestinian strategy of trying to curb its countermeasures against possible cross-border infiltration. Israeli forces often mount hunts for tunnels and landmines on the inside of the Gaza boundary, creating a no-go zone for Palestinians.


“Of course we don’t accept their attempt to change the rules,” Defence Minister Ehud Barak told Israel’s Army Radio.


“The essence of the struggle is over the fence. We intend to enable the IDF (Israel Defence Forces) to work not just on our side but on the other side as well.”


Palestinians said four of Saturday’s dead were civilians hit by an Israeli tank shell while paying respects at a crowded mourning tent in Gaza’s Shijaia neighborhood. Israel denies targeting civilians.


The bloodshed puts internal pressure on Hamas, which, though hostile to the Jewish state, has sat out some of the recent rounds of violence as it tried to consolidate its Gaza rule and reach out to neighboring Egypt and other foreign powers.


Israel blames Hamas for any attacks emanating from Gaza, but has shown little appetite for a major sweep of the territory which might strain its own fraught ties to the new Islamist-rooted government in Cairo.


(Writing by Dan Williams; Reporting by Nidal al-Mughrabi; Editing by Todd Eastham)


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China says Hollywood putting pinch on domestic films
















BEIJING (Reuters) – China‘s films are taking a hit from a trade deal that allows for more U.S. movie imports, the country’s broadcast regulator said on Sunday, with their share of the box office take sliding even as the industry’s total revenues outpace those of last year.


The movie pact, which exempted 14 films from China’s annual quota of 20 foreign films per year, was hammered out in February during a trip to the United States by Vice President Xi Jinping, the man expected to take the ruling Communist Party‘s top spot after a congress held this week in Beijing.













After signing the deal, the number of American films in China and their proportion of revenues have increased by a “large margin”, Vice Minister of the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television Tian Jin said.


“The past dominance of domestic films in the Chinese market has been shaken,” Tian told a press briefing on the sidelines of the congress held once every five years.


China’s 2012 box office revenues reached 13.27 billion yuan ($ 2.12 billion) at the end of October, Tian said, already outpacing revenues from all of 2011. But the share of revenues for domestically produced films was only 41.4 percent, constituting “a huge drop”.


Tian said the U.S. film industry is reaping massive profits while domestic producers are under greater pressure, mainly because Chinese movies cannot compete with the Hollywood spectacles.


“The competitiveness of Chinese-made films must be raised,” he said.


Chinese film industry experts have said that Hollywood’s looming shadow means Chinese producers need to focus on quality if they are going to elevate their appeal to a Chinese audience.


February’s deal stemmed from a victory in a 2009 U.S. World Trade Organization case that challenged Beijing’s restrictions on import and distribution of copyright-protected materials.


The U.S. movie industry has long complained about China’s tight restrictions on foreign films, which they say helps fuel demand for pirated DVDs that are widely available in China.


It also argued that it was being boxed out of a booming market, as the fast-growing Chinese middle class spends more money in theatres.


The Chinese film market is seen as one of the largest potential markets for Hollywood, but it has also been tightly controlled by the state-owned China Film Group.


Chinese films frequently compete for international awards, but winners overseas are often not those supported by China’s government, which tend to fan nationalist and patriotic sentiment.


(Reporting by Michael Martina; Editing by Nick Macfie)


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Food labels multiply, some confuse consumers
















FRESNO, Calif. (AP) — Want to avoid pesticides and antibiotics in your produce, meat, and dairy foods? Prefer to pay more to make sure farm animals were treated humanely, farmworkers got their lunch breaks, bees or birds were protected by the farmer and that ranchers didn’t kill predators?


Food labels claim to certify a wide array of sustainable practices. Hundreds of so-called eco-labels have cropped up in recent years, with more introduced every month — and consumers are willing to pay extra for products that feature them.













While eco-labels can play a vital role, experts say their rapid proliferation and lack of oversight or clear standards have confused both consumers and producers.


“Hundreds of eco labels exist on all kinds of products, and there is the potential for companies and producers to make false claims,” said Shana Starobin, a food label expert at Duke University’s Nicholas School of the Environment.


Eco-labels have multiplied in recent years in response to rising consumer demand for more information about products and increased attention to animal and farmworker welfare, personal health, and the effects of conventional farming on the environment.


“Credible labels can be very helpful in helping people get to what they want to get to and pay more for something they really care about,” said Urvashi Rangan, director of consumer safety at Consumer Reports. “The labels are a way to bring the bottom up and force whole industries to improve their practices.”


The problem, Rangan and other said, is that few standards, little oversight and a lot of misinformation exist for the growing array of labels.


Some labels, such as the USDA organic certification, have standards set by the federal government to which third party certifiers must adhere. Some involve non-government standards and third-party certification, and may include site visits from independent auditors who evaluate whether a given farm or company has earned the label.


But other labels have little or no standards, or are certified by unknown organizations or by self-interested industry groups. Many labels lack any oversight.


And the problem is global, because California’s products get sold overseas and fruits and vegetables from Europe or Mexico with their own eco-labels make it onto U.S. plates.


The sheer number of labels and the lack of oversight create a credibility problem and risk rendering all labels meaningless and diluting demand for sustainably produced goods, Rangan said.


Daniel Mourad of Fresno, a young professional who likes to cook and often shops for groceries at Whole Foods, said he tends to be wary of judging products just by the labels — though sustainable practices are important to him.


“Labels have really confused the public. Some have good intentions, but I don’t know if they’re really helpful,” Mourad said. “Organic may come from Chile, but what does it mean if it’s coming from 6,000 miles away? Some local farmers may not be able to afford a label.”


In California, voters this week rejected a ballot measure that would have required labels on foods containing genetically modified ingredients.


Farmers like Gena Nonini in Fresno County say labels distinguish them from the competition. Nonini’s 100-acre Marian Farms, which grows grapes, almonds, citrus and vegetables, is certified biodynamic and organic, and her raisins are certified kosher.


“For me, the certification is one way of educating people,” Nonini said. “It opens a venue to tell a story and to set yourself apart from other farmers out there.”


But other farmers say they are reluctant to spend money on yet another certification process or to clutter their product with too much packaging and information.


“I think if we keep adding all these new labels, it tends to be a pile of confusion,” said Tom Willey of TD Willey Farms in Madera, Calif. His 75-acre farm, which grows more than 40 different vegetable crops, carries USDA organic certification, but no other labels.


The proliferation of labels, Willey said, is a poor substitute for “people being intimate with the farmers who grow their food.” Instead of seeking out more labels, he said, consumers should visit a farmers’ market or a farm, and talk directly to the grower.


Since that’s still impossible for many urbanites, Consumer Reports has developed a rating system, a database and a web site for evaluating environmental and food labels — one of several such guides that have popped up recently to help consumers.


The guides show that labels such as “natural” and “free range” carry little meaning, because they lack clear standards or a verification system.


Despite this, consumers are willing to pay more for “free range” eggs and poultry, and studies show they value “natural” over “organic,” which is governed by lengthy federal regulations.


But some consumers and watchdog groups are becoming more vigilant.


In October, the Animal Legal Defense Fund filed a lawsuit against Petaluma, Calif., organic egg producer of Judy’s Eggs over “free range” claims. The company’s packaging depicts a hen ranging on green grass, and the inside reads “these hens are raised in wide open spaces in Sonoma Valley…”


Aerial photos of the farm suggest the chickens actually live in factory-style sheds, according to the lawsuit. Judy and Steve Mahrt, owners of Petaluma Farms, said in a statement that the suit is “frivolous, unfair and untrue,” but they did not comment on the specific allegations.


Meanwhile, new labels are popping up rapidly. The Food Justice label, certified via third party audits, guarantees a farm’s commitment to fair living wages and adequate living and working conditions for farmworkers. And Wildlife Friendly, another third-party audited program, certifies farmers and ranchers who peacefully co-exist with wolves, coyotes, foxes and other predators.


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